AC Milan vs Atalanta
All is not well on the red half of Milan; as we enter the last three games of the 2025/26 campaign Massimiliano Allegri’s team is not guaranteed a Champions League place.
Following an eighth-placed finish last term I Rossoneri had a much lighter schedule than their rivals with no European football to clog up the schedules and they seemed to be making the most of it, leading the table at the start of December and looking like genuine Scudetto contenders. But Milan has fallen off the pace and after a poor run of results the Serie A table is not looking quite so comfortable now. This Sunday fixture, Serie A: AC Milan vs Atalanta has taken on much greater significance.
While Inter Milan has already won the Scudetto and is in the Coppa Italia final Allegri’s men are down in third place, two points above Juventus and, crucially, only three ahead of AS Roma in fifth; and with 13 points from the last six games I Giallorossi have made up six points on Milan and Juventus show no sign of fading, with three wins and three draws from the last six.
After losing to Sassuolo last week this match presents a good chance for Milan to get back to winning ways as they face a side which has its own problems. Raffaele Palladino’s Atalanta is on a five-match winless streak in all competitions, effectively ending their hopes of a top-six finish; and the AC Milan vs Atalanta betting odds say La Dea will struggle to end their unwanted streak.
Talking Points
Milan desperately needs the Champions League cash
In my SBOTOP preview of Milan’s visit to Sassuolo I said I Rossoneri needed to nail down their top four place but, against a mid-table team playing without pressure they were undone, losing 2-0 after conceding early and then having centre back Fikayo Tomori sent off; and the England man will be sidelined for the visit of Atalanta. Milan finish with a visit to Genoa and then they are at home to Cagliari on the last day. Both of those two teams have picked up in recent weeks with seven points from the last four games each, and so Milan will be keen to buy some breathing space this weekend.
You can’t overstate the importance of Champions League football to AC Milan, in terms of prestige and more so for the cash it generates. Clubs outside the European elite must sell and I Rossoneri is no exception, and today’s news from the San Siro suggests that Portuguese forward Rafael Leao might be on the market if needs must. He has been out of form, without a goal since the beginning of March and there is a chance Leao will be benched for the clash with La Dea. Christian Pulisic will be another player to attract attention should Milan fall short again. The USA star wants Champions League football, and he would bring in significant funds if needed.
In the meantime, as well as Tomori missing out on Sunday, midfield ace Luka Modric is sidelined, while Santiago Gimenez could be the man to come in should Leao be rested.
La Dea is limping towards the season end
After a mixed start to the post-Gasperini era, Atalanta found their feet mid-season and were going well in the league and the Coppa Italia. But a semi-final defeat to Lazio ended la Dea’s cup run and since then they have slumped in the league and fallen out of top six contention. Losing to Lazio on penalties was hard to take for Atalanta players and fans and the fall out has seen them lose by the odd goal in three to Cagliari and then draw 0-0 at home to Genoa.
In Cagliari they still looked shellshocked from their Coppa disappointment and were 2-0 down within ten minutes, and though Gianluca Scammaca scored a brace to get them back into the game Atalanta couldn’t take advantage and surrendered the points. Against Genoa La Dea had a real go, with 21 shots and seven on target but they were frustrated again and are now seven points behind Como in sixth, so they must now win all three and hope Como fall off a cliff.
History
The head-to-head AC Milan vs Atalanta results have been shared quite evenly over the past 40 games, with Milan edging it by 16 wins to 14 and there have been ten draws. It is the same story at the San Siro Stadium too, with eight Milan victories and seven for La Dea, and when the two teams met in Bergamo in October, they played out a 1-1 draw with Ademola Lookman equalising after Samuele Ricci had given the visitors an early lead.
With two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games I Rossoneri have been stumbling badly, while with one win, three draws and two defeats La Dea are doing no better.
Betting Tip
Milan are the clear favourites to win this game at odds of 2.00, with Atalanta priced at 3.40 and the Draw is at 3.50. This is a clash of two teams low on confidence, and eight of the last 12 games involving them have yielded two goals or fewer, four for each club and, for a correct scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 6.65 is the most likely outcome.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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