Southampton vs Arsenal
After the international break, it’s now the real acid test period for Arsenal.
The fact so many of their players withdrew from international duty over the last fortnight showed just how crucial the final two months of the club campaign are to the club.
No one was being risked given what is at stake; especially after such a lengthy wait for glory.
With the exception of the Community Shield, it’s approaching six years since the North London giants had any silverware to celebrate (the 2020 FA Cup) and more than two decades since they were last top of the tree.
That run continued following their defeat in the League Cup Final last time out, but surely with a nine-point advantage in the Premier League and eminently winnable quarter-finals to come in the FA Cup and Champions League, starting this weekend, that is about to change.
Talking Points
A trip to Championship side Southampton is where the run-in begins and, even if manager Mikel Arteta rests some key players – as he did against Mansfield in the previous round – the squad depth should mean they have too much for the promotion chasing Saints.
It will be interesting to see how many of the contingent who were absent from international duty are fit to return straight away.
First-choice centre-back William Saliba pulled out of France’s squad with a left ankle injury and was swiftly followed by Jurriën Timber, who has been struggling with a groin issue.
In the next 24 hours, Gabriel – who would have been at the forefront of Arteta’s mind when referring to “our recent history” after the defender suffered a groin injury in a friendly win over Senegal at the Emirates in November that kept him out until the new year – withdrew from Brazil’s squad.
Leandro Trossard did the same from Belgium’s, while Eberechi Eze was also forced to excuse himself from England duty due to the calf problem that ruled him out of the League Cup Final.
In addition, midfielder Martin Zubimendi pulled out of Spain duty with a pain in his left knee – making it 11 Arsenal players in total.
With the exception of Eze, I expect the others to be ready to return, if not on the South Coast this weekend, then for the trip to Sporting Lisbon in Europe next week.
There may also be good news surrounding captain Martin Odegaard – who missed a large portion of last season after injuring ankle ligaments on international duty. He was reportedly close to returning for the League Cup showpiece following a persistent knee issue but didn’t feature and subsequently pulled out of Norway’s squad.
Arsenal will need most of those players back quickly given two of their international stars did return from duty on the sidelines.
Noni Madueke and Piero Hincapié both limped out of their respective friendlies for England and Ecuador. Madueke was spotted leaving Wembley in a knee brace while Hincapié has to determine the severity of a suspected muscle injury.
Friendlies! No wonder managers get frustrated about them at this stage of the season.
As for the Saints, who sit in sixth spot in the Championship table in a closely contested race to secure a play-off spot and bounce back to the top flight at the first attempt, this cup tie is, in many ways, a free hit.
After seeing off Fulham in the fifth round, the home side should not be underestimated.
Tonda Eckert’s hosts have also knocked out Doncaster Rovers and Leicester City before the Cottagers fell to Ross Stewart’s last-gasp penalty which propelled the Saints into the quarter-finals for the third time in the last six seasons.
Eckert’s side have since taken 10 points from the last 12 on offer in the Championship, most recently defeating Oxford United 2-0 to put their play-off destiny in their own hands.
A marvellous run of New Year form has seen them go unbeaten in 14 games, winning 11 of them, but they won’t be at full strength this weekend.
Midfielder Flynn Downes and Kuryu Matsuki are both suspended and, to make matters worse, skipper Jack Stephens suffered a training-ground injury on Monday.
It makes a hard task even harder and, while league form is the priority for both clubs, Arsenal should deliver enough FA Cup 2026 highlights to see them through.
History
Arteta’s men defeated the Saints twice last season, including a 2-1 final-day league success in which Kieran Tierney scored in his final appearance for the Gunners before Odegaard grabbed an 89th-minute winner – all this after Stewart had equalised.
Arsenal had won 3-1 on their own turf earlier in the campaign, thanks to goals from Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka. Cameron Archer had given the Saints a shock lead which lasted all of three minutes.
Southampton’s last victory against Arsenal came in April 2022 when Jan Bednarek netted the only goal of the game in the Premier League at St Mary’s.
It was the same scoreline at the same venue the last time they met in the FA Cup, the fourth round in 2021 when a Gabriel own goal divided the sides and sent the then holders out.
Overall, Southampton have 23 successes compared to Arsenal’s 53 victories and 30 draws.
They first met in March 1927. This was the FA Cup too – a semi-final at Stamford Bridge which Arsenal won 2-1.
Charlie Buchan and Joe Hulme were their marksmen with William Rawlings replying.
Betting Tip
Southampton often lift their games when the established big six are in town but, let’s face it, the continuous sale of their best players makes that task even tougher.
The SBOTOP FA Cup 2026 betting odds make Arsenal clear favourites and, while I think they will progress, I am expecting them to edge home by the odd goal in three, just as they did in the last round.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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