EFL Cup: The Big Final With Big Permutations

Arsenal vs Manchester City

It’s fitting that the top two teams in the country are about to contest the first major silverware of the season. Yet this isn’t just about 90 minutes (and possibly more).

The outcome of the EFL Cup final at Wembley on Sunday could have a big impact on the final two months of the campaign.

 

Talking Points

The potential narratives are clear. Would a first trophy in almost six years give Arsenal the confidence to go and end their 22-year title wait – they already hold a healthy advantage. Alternatively, a defeat and an extension of their barren run psychologically start to play on their minds in the run-in.

Then there’s Manchester City. Victory would secure them a sixth League Cup success in just 11 years and provide them with a timely boost after successive draws hindered their title bid, while they were well beaten as they went out of the Champions League to Real Madrid for the third successive season.

Or are they about to bow out of a second competition in under a week?

All in all then, the incentive to seal EFL Cup 2026 highlights at the national stadium could stretch well beyond Sunday afternoon.

For Arsenal, Jurrien Timber (ankle) and skipper Martin Odegaard are likely to face fitness tests, but manager Mikel Arteta, once Pep Guardiola’s assistant at City, should have an otherwise full squad to choose from.

Guardiola has already confirmed that James Trafford, who has been a regular in this competition, will replace Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal. Only Josko Gvardiol (calf) is out injured, but Guardiola, much to his chagrin, will have to do without January signing Marc Guehi, ineligible as he skippered Crystal Palace earlier in the competition. Common sense has prevailed. It is quite right that Guehi doesn’t play, but that hasn’t stopped the City boss trying to change the rules.

 

History

Arsenal have a vast superiority in the overall head-to-head record with 101 triumphs compared to 65 City wins and 48 draws. City held a distinct upper hand once their takeover in 2008 saw them inherit newfound wealth. Indeed, they won 12 matches in a row against the Gunners in the Premier League between 2017 and 2023.

That dominance has been halted in more recent seasons with two Arsenal victories and three draws, as well as a penalty shootout success in the 2023 Community Shield after a 1-1 draw in which Cole Palmer (now of Chelsea) and Leandro Trossard traded goals.

City’s last victory over Arsenal was in April 2023, when Kevin De Bruyne (two), John Stones, and Erling Haaland were the marksmen, with Rob Holding adding what amounted to no more than a consolation as City all but killed off their opponents’ title hopes.

Last season, Arsenal turned on the style in North London with Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Kai Havertz, and Ethan Nwaneri on target in a 5-1 win. Haaland had briefly drawn City level.

The fixture in Manchester 18 months ago ended in a 2-2 draw. It was utterly chaotic and utterly brilliant, including Haaland’s 100th goal for the club (in just 105 appearances), an Arteta team playing the entire second half with 10 men but remaining brilliantly drilled, and a dramatic intervention in the 98th minute from Stones, which meant City returned to the summit.

More crucially, though, it cost Rodri the remainder of the season due to a serious injury, and they have, arguably, never been quite the same since.

Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel were the scorers that afternoon for Arsenal, who played the entire second half with 10 men.

The league meeting earlier this season also ended all square. Haaland was terrific for City with yet another goal and a work-rate to match, contributions which looked set to earn them an impressive three points.

That was until the third minute of stoppage time when exciting youngster Gabriel Martinelli spotted Donnarumma off his line and expertly lifted the bouncing ball over the Italian before seeing it bobble into the empty net – super cool finishing at the death.

James Henderson was someone whose name will mean little to readers, but the Scottish inside forward was the first ever scorer in the first ever game between the sides in 1893 – a clash between Woolwich Arsenal and Ardwick in Plumstead in Division Two, which the southerners won 1-0.

 

Betting Tip

Based on their differing fortunes over the last few weeks, Arsenal are actually the favourites. That is reflected in the SBOTOP EFL Cup 2026 betting odds which prices the Gunners 1X2 @ 2.38 compared to City @ 2.71.

However, I think City may just have the know-how and nous to win this one, perhaps by the odd goal in three. Therefore my prediction is Asian Handicap in favour of Man City 0.00 @ 2.25.

   

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